CMHC Releases Updated Results of its House Price Analysis and Assessment Framework for Canada and 12 Markets

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released updated results today from its House Price Analysis and Assessment (HPAA) framework, which is designed to detect the presence of problematic conditions in Canadian housing markets.

“Modest overvaluation based on national indicators reflects a variety of price conditions across the country with some centres showing more signs of overvaluation than others. Likewise, housing market risk factors such as overheating, acceleration in house prices and overbuilding also vary by CMA” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s Chief Economist.

Toronto, Montréal, and Québec
In our model these CMAs continue to indicate risks that exceed those at the national level, but remain moderate nonetheless. This largely reflects the detection of some risk of overvaluation in these centres, with an added note of caution for Toronto and Montréal related to the risk of overbuilding. Condominium units under construction are near historical peaks. Inventory management is necessary to make sure that these condominium units under construction do not remain unsold upon completion.

Regina and Winnipeg
In these CMAs, the risk of problematic market conditions evident in our model is high. In Regina, this reflects price acceleration, overvaluation and overbuilding, particularly of condominium apartments. In Winnipeg, risk of overvaluation and overbuilding are detected.

Calgary and Edmonton
These CMAs are currently assessed as low overall risk, despite a risk of overvaluation in Calgary. However, MLS® sales have declined in recent months in these CMAs, pushing the sales-to-new listings ratio to buyers’ market levels, reflecting the impact of lower oil prices on housing demand in these oil-producing centres. This is expected to place downward pressure on house price growth, which could lessen the current risk of overvaluation in Calgary.


Low overall housing market risk is observed for Vancouver, as none of the individual risk factors are currently detected. 

The HPAA is a comprehensive framework that is designed to assess housing market conditions by taking into consideration the economic, financial and demographic drivers of housing markets. The use of multiple indicators of housing conditions, which incorporate various data sources and prices measures, provides a robust picture of overall housing market conditions. The results released today include those for the national market as well as 12 CMAs – Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Toronto, Ottawa, Montréal, Québec, St.John’s and Halifax.

Coquitlam News

Canadian housing starts trended lower in September
The trend in housing starts was 271,068 units in September 2021, down from 284,757 units in August...
Canadian home prices continue to re-accelerate in September
Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales edged...
Top 10 September 2021
I am greatful for each and everyone of my clients as their support  and trust in me has enabled me...
The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of either the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) or the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB). Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLS® logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by either the REBGV, the FVREB or the CADREB which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of either the REBGV, the FVREB or the CADREB.