CMHC’s Forecast Indicates a Soft Landing for the Housing Market

According to CMHC’s third quarter 2014 Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition1, housing activity will continue to be supported by economic and demographic fundamentals for the rest of 2014 and into 2015.

“Recent trends have shown an increase in housing starts, which is broadly supported by demographic fundamentals. However, our latest forecast calls for starts to edge lower as builders are expected to reduce inventories instead of focussing on new construction,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC.

On an annual basis, housing starts are expected to range between 179,600 and 189,900 units in 2014, with a point forecast of 184,800 units. In 2015, housing starts are expected to range from 163,000 to 203,200 units, with a point forecast of 183,100 units.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®2) sales are expected to range between 450,800 and 482,700 units in 2014, with a point forecast of  463,600 units. In 2015, sales are expected to range from 455,800 to 502,900 units, with an increase in the point forecast to 474,300 units.

The average MLS® price is forecast to be between $394,700 and $405,700 in 2014 and between $396,500 and $416,900 in 2015. CMHC’s point forecast for the average MLS® price calls for a 4.5 per cent gain to $399,800 in 2014 and a further 1.8 per cent gain to $406,800 in 2015.

Coquitlam News

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